Can AI Write Future Scenarios for Us?
Earlier this year, we offered a Scenario Series for a fantastic group of fellow consultants. Using my book as our guide, we moved through all the steps over seven weeks. One task was to construct a Day in the Life of a person living in a Scenario. Judy admitted to ‘cheating a little’ because she had used Chat GPT. Au contraire. It’s a cool idea! The conversation that followed was a great learning for all of us. One of the observations from Judy was that ChatGPT wouldn’t ‘go dark.’ Each time she tried to include destructive aspects, AI negated the effects with a happy ending.
Since then, I’ve been thinking a lot about how to use AI in Scenario work. I must admit with the right prompts, AI can write a nice story. Should we be using AI to write Scenarios that inform our strategic planning?
How AI can Help
One of the significant advantages of employing AI to assist in the creation of future scenarios is its remarkable efficiency. AI has the capability to rapidly sift through vast volumes of data and generate multiple potential scenarios, relieving human beings of the substantial time and effort required for manual analysis.
Furthermore, AI-driven analysis is inherently data-driven, enabling it to uncover subtle patterns and trends that might elude human observers. It can provide scenario developers with valuable data-backed insights, which can form the foundation for scenario planning.
Another compelling advantage is the objectivity that AI brings to the process. Unlike humans, AI is not influenced by personal biases or subjective opinions, ensuring a more impartial examination of possible future scenarios.
Lastly, AI guarantees consistency throughout the data interpretation and scenario generation process. By reducing the potential for human error, it enhances the reliability of the results.
Cautions in Using AI for Scenarios
Despite its merits, there are notable limitations to using AI for scenario planning. AI-generated scenarios are fundamentally based on historical data and predefined assumptions. They are not good for capturing entirely novel or unpredictable developments. A recent article (Spaniol & Rowland, 2023) noted that AI chatbot revealed that ‘training only goes up to 2021’.
Creativity and imagination are fundamentally human traits that AI lacks. As a result, it may struggle to generate scenarios for highly unconventional or unprecedented situations that require creative thinking.
Ethical concerns can arise when AI is utilized for any task. These concerns include issues related to data privacy, the potential bias in algorithms, and the ethical use of predictive technologies.
Most importantly, when you shop out the work to AI, you miss one of the biggest benefits of scenario work: the fundamental shift that occurs in your mental models as you collaborate with colleagues to generate and analyze the implications of future scenarios. If you’re not involved, you’re not re-mapping your thinking. You’re reading someone else’s work, and that’s unlikely to have much impact.
In summary, AI serves as a valuable addition to the toolkit of scenario planners. In mere moments and at little to no cost, AI-generated scenarios can give us material to get started. The true potential of AI is achieved when it is combined with our creativity, critical thinking, and domain knowledge in crafting meaningful and relevant future scenarios.
Reference
Spaniol, M. J., & Rowland, N. (2023). AI-assisted scenario generation for strategic planning. Foresight Futures Science.