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What is Scenario Thinking?

A Structured Process

Scenarios provide a framework to explore the combined impact of multiple factors related to a topic to

They provide a way to think about an uncertain, fast-changing future.

A Preferrred Tool

There are many tools for planning the future but scenario thinking is rapidly rising in popularity.

It is superior to many classic planning tools because it compels us to look at multiple futures–not just our preferred version.

A Way of Thinking

We believe all leaders can benefit from learning how to create and work with scenarios.

It is, simply, a great way to manage the future.

Outcomes of Scenario Thinking

Expanded & Shared Mindset

  • As teams work together to create scenarios, they develop a shared understanding of issues for the future that pertain to their industry, organization or profession.

  • Scenarios are a thinking tool that can apply to many instances.

  • Once trends have been noted and explored they will continue to be noticed.

Implications & Options for Strategic Planning

  • When the scenario grid has been completed the team identifies Implications for their own businesses.

  • Given the implications they then generate Options to address future possibilities.  These actions may take several forms: 1) No-brainers—actions that address multiple Futures, 2) Little Bets—small investments that will put the organization ahead (e.g a new partnership).

  • Critical weak signals can be monitored.

Resources to Download