Scenario Thinking

The pace of change is expected to accelerate at warp speed, with more change expected in the next 15 years than in all of human history to date. How do you create a winning future?

Scenario Thinking

Scenario planning is a form of strategic foresight.  The process explores a variety of possible or probable futures.
Scenarios are not forecasts or predictions. Rather, they are descriptions of potential future worlds and their likely impact on your organization.

A Way of Thinking

We believe all leaders can benefit from learning how to create and work with scenarios.

Whether the goal is to lead a full scenario process or simply use the it as a thinking tool, it is, simply, a great way to manage the future.

A Structured Process

Scenarios provide a framework to explore the combined impact of multiple factors related to a topic to the future of your organization.

They provide a way to think about an uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing future.

A Versatile Tool

Scenario planning is increasingly popular because our world is changing in disruptive ways and it’s harder to predict the future.

It is superior to many planning tools because it compels us to look at multiple futures.

The point of Scenarios is not to get a single RIGHT answer. The benefit is the new mental models you develop as you explore several possible answers.

Outcomes of Scenario Creation & Analysis

Expanded & Shared Mindset

  • As teams work together to create scenarios, they develop a shared understanding of issues for the future that pertain to their industry, organization or profession.
  • Scenarios are a thinking tool that can apply to many instances.
  • Once trends have been noted and explored they will continue to be noticed.

Implications & Options for Strategic Planning

  • When the scenario grid has been completed the team identifies implications for their own businesses.
  • Given the implications they then generate Options to address future possibilities.  These actions may take several forms: 1) No-brainers—actions that address multiple Futures, 2) Little Bets—small investments that will put the organization ahead (e.g a new partnership).
  • Critical weak signals can be monitored.